Iranian Involvement in Gulf of Oman Incident Doubtful: Dryad Global Maritime Risk Assessment

Iranian involvement in the two incidents of sabotage of oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman yesterday is doubtful as harming the vessels does not tally with its self-interest, a London-based maritime risk agency, Dryad Global has said.

In a report detailing assessment of the indent released to the media, Dryad Global has said, “It would also be remarkable that Iran would knowingly targets vessels reported to be carrying ‘Japan-related cargo’ at the same time that the Japanese Prime Minister Abe is conducting talks in Iran.”

At a time where the Iranian economy is struggling and sanctions are biting, it seems surprising that Iran would endeavor to conduct such a bellicose strategy. These inconsistencies in terms of interest and motive do not rule out Iranian involvement, but they do suggest that a wider regional narrative may be at play, and that the responsible party could in fact not be Iranian once a further investigation is completed.

It is important to note that the attack on the Front Altair is reported to have struck the starboard side of the vessel, which was travelling in a southerly direction. Any Iranian involvement either directly or via a proxy is unlikely to have conducted an attack from the port side, as this would immediately give rise to allegations of Iranian shore launch projectiles would require Iran to refute blast diagnostic evidence from the outset.

However, it is a realistic possibility that Iran or a proxy were behind this attack. Yet, the situation remains fluid and there are a number of competing narratives that require examining. Any assessment of Iranian involvement must be contextualized, and must be analyzed through the prism of self-interest and motive. States such as Iran are rational actors, and will not conduct attacks in the Strait of Hormuz merely to ‘disrupt’ global shipping, without there being a clear national interest in doing so, the report said.

The United States, meanwhile has squarely blamed Iran for the attack on the two vessels. It released an image of boat close to one of the two vessels as ‘evidence’ of Iranian involvement. The US fifth fleet is in the vicinity and may launch operations to protect commercial shipping in the coming days.